UFC 236 occurs Saturday night in Atlanta, and you can watch the five-fight principal card live on ESPN+. The card is ripe with fascinating fights throughout the night, but the majority of fans will likely be most-interested at the event’s closing two conflicts for its interim middleweight and lightweight titles.
We have you covered with comprehensive gambling analysis on the main and co-main occasion…
Max Holloway & Dustin Poirier Rematch for Lightweight Gold
Can Kelvin Gastelum Steal Israel Adesanya’s Spotlight?
… but that doesn’t mean we still can’t find out a thing or 2 about the night’s extra 11 struggles!
What follows is a brief breakdown on every matchup at UFC 236 in a bid to learn enough about every fighter to produce a more educated wager on these if your heart needs.
Interim Lightweight Title Fight: Max Holloway (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+165)
Poirier has been on a war path since returning to light-weight April, 2015. In general, he’s won eight of his last 10 battles and suffered only 1 loss (KO to Michael Johnson) and one no competition in his first battle against Eddie Alvarez. Poirier ranks first among busy UFC lightweights in striking differential per second at +2.69.
The two Poirier (7.11 strikes per second ) and Holloway (6.9) rank among the top-five highest-volume strikers from the total UFC. Holloway’s quantity is like an avalanche that becomes more-and-more overpowering as the fight continues.
Holloway’s last battle was arguably the best championship functionality in UFC history. In general, his 290 significant strikes at a struggle broke the UFC tournament album.
Holloway opened the week as a -230 favorite, but action has arrived in greatly on Poirier ever since.
Interim Middleweight Title Fight: Kelvin Gastelum (+150) vs. Israel Adesanya (-185)
Gastelum managed to record at least one knockdown against former champions Jacare Souza, Michael Bisping, Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort throughout his hellacious run during the middleweight division. His constant barrages of one-two combinations have been hard for practically all his opponents do deal with throughout his career.
Israel’The previous Stylebender’ Adesanya is a former Glory Kickboxing champion that has rung up a 16-0 record to begin his mixed martial arts profession. He will not need anything to do with Gastelum — a country championship wrestler in high school — on the floor, but we have yet to see someone come near out-classing Adesanya on the feet throughout his five UFC wins.
Adesanya opened the week as a -175 favorite, but has since transferred to -185 behind the public’s support.
Light Heavyweight Fight: Eryk Anders (-200) vs. Khalil Rountree (+160)
Anders played linebacker under Nick Saban in Alabama from 2006-2009 before starting his mixed martial arts profession. All three of Anders’ livelihood losses have come in his last four fights, but these were just two split-decision losses combined with a single TKO reduction via referee stoppage throughout his short-notice light heavyweight debut against Thiago Santos, who will fight Jon Jones for the division’s championship in July.
Rountree listed the biggest success of his career at UFC 226 against long-time championship kickboxer Gokhan Saki, but has been subsequently knocked out by increasing contender Johnny Walker last November. Rountree’s career striking differential of -0.99 has made it hard for him to win fights by any way other than a finish, and he has accordingly lost both of his career UFC fights who have made it past the first round.
Welterweight Fight: Alan Jouban (-120) vs. Dwight Grant (-110)
Jouban will probably be providing up a five-inch advantage benefit to Grant. This is uncharted territory for Jouban throughout his 11-fight UFC profession, but he is 3-1 in conflicts with a reach advantage of at least three inches. Meanwhile, the Grant is 1-1 at the UFC with a victory over Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (75-inch reach) and a split-decision loss to Zak Ottow (72-inch achieve ).
The x-factor in this fight might end up being volume. Jouban finds himself among the top-10 welterweights in UFC history in knockdowns landed (No. 4), significant strike precision (No. 7), strikes landed per second (No. 3) and striking differential (No. 4).
Light Heavyweight Fight: Ovince Saint Preux (-110) vs. Nikita Krylov (-120)
Krylov has quite literally never had a fight go to the judges in 30 career MMA fights. Including 10 battles inside the Octagon, that were featured three wins by TKO/KO and three by entry in contrast to three declines by entry as well as one by TKO.
This is in fact a rematch from UFC 171, when OSP defeated Krylov by first-round submission. The finish featured Saint Preux’s signature entry: The Von Flue choke.
UFC 236 Prelims
Lightweight Fight: Jalin Turner (-140) vs. Matt Frevola (+110)
Turner boasts enormous elevation (6-foot-3 vs. 5-foot-9) and reach (77 inches vs. 71) benefits over Frevola, although that edge could be mitigated if the latter fighter is able to instigate his takedown-heavy assault. Turner was last observed starching Callan Potter in just 53 seconds back at UFC 234 in February.
Flyweight Fight: Wilson Reis (+130) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (-160)
Reis is currently the UFC’s No. 4 ranked flyweight ahead of his departure with fifth-ranked Alexandre Pantoja. Although Reis has dropped three of his last four fights, they’ve come against a high-level competitors like John Moraga, current flyweight champion Henry Cejudo and former winner Demetrious Johnson. The two Reis (12:08) and Pantoja (11:58) have typical fight times that could indicate we will see this fight last to the third round.
Welterweight Fight: Max Griffin (-105) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-125)
Imadaev opened the week with -115 odds. Public support has come in on the undefeated Russian, who has won all eight of his struggles by TKO or KO. He’s making his debut inside the octagon against Max Griffin, who has dropped four of the last six fights dating back to August, 2016. There’s a little terrible blood , as Griffin sparred with Imadaev once upon a time and had this to say about his opponent…
« He is an ass, man. He is not a good man… I really don’t like the guy… I’m excited about showing him what it’s like. »
Bantamweight Fight: Boston Salmon (-150) vs. Khalid Taha (+120)
Boston’Boom Boom’ Salmon has only lost once in seven seven career fights (by split-decision). Salmon won his last fight against Ricky Turcios on the debut episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He will maintain a four-inch height advantage of Taha, who has dropped two of his last 3 fights. Backing Salmon in his ancient -135 odds was among my favorite bets on the card, but he still offers a little bit of worth at his current -150 odds.
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UFC 236 Historical Prelims
Welterweight Fight: Curtis Millender (+115) vs. Belal Muhammad (-145)
Millender fought just last month at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos, ultimately losing by entry (rear-naked choke) into Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Muhammad has also been busy, as he endured a unanimous decision loss to Geoff Neal back in January in UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw. Millender boasts three and four inch height and reach advantages, respectively, though Muhammad has been much more of a takedown hazard during his UFC career.
Bantamweight Fight: Montel Jackson (-550) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (+375)
Jackson opened the week as a -500 favored, but has since moved even higher. He is the largest favorite on the card. Soukhamthath is 13-6 as a skilled and has been fed to Jackson, who has lost only once in eight career bouts.
Girls Strawweight Fight: Lauren Mueller (+145) vs. Poliana Botelho (-175)
Both these women have high striking prices and don’t waste their time getting started. This is very true for Botelho, who notched the third-fastest finish in the history of this UFC women’s branch back in May, 2018.
Bantamweight Fight: Brandon Davis (-170) vs. Randy Costa (+140)
Costa is undefeated in four professional conflicts, while Davis is only 9-5. Both fighters are making a debut of sorts, as Costa will probably be inside the octagon for the very first time in his career, while Davis has apparently never fought 135 lbs.
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