This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my opinion. I believe he’ll be the better fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he should predominate. I like locking that win in my cash game and I think he has a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to be hot in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and try to be contrarian, I’d definitely want some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so he can continue all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. However, we can use an ~80-point win in money games because we just have to conquer half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week because of the chances. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that is what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he is only -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou at his 7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the area. Also, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the more his betting line decreases and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, therefore that I don’t care for him as much in cash game, but for GPPs we want boom or bust to attempt and get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He is $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s just a +125 underdog. I think he has a good shot of winning this fight and I am choosing him to receive his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close fight, but I believe Fili is going to be the fighter striking in the greater pace and that’s what I believe do it for him on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili having 100+ point upside but we don’t really need that at his $7.4k price label. I think he’s a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me personally.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her on the $20k lineup at her wages. I like the 9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game plans. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but this is because she did use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this game because I presume Evans-Smith gets the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she’s going to have to do it on the toes and I don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she will be super low owned, and it will create your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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